Commentary: Is MLB trending towards another lockout? |
No one wants to see sports end up in a lockout, but when it comes to baseball, lockouts are way too common. This sport has gone through its share of lockouts, with the most recent one happening in 2021, causing the season to start roughly a month later than usual.
Many things went into the lockout, but when all was said and done, a new CBA was reached, as the two sides agreed that it would take baseball through 2026. As is the case for nearly everything in life, all good things must come to an end, and with the CBA set to expire in 2026, there are talks about what will happen next with baseball. Despite baseball being in a very good place and arguably the best place it has been in a while, initial predictions expect the expiring CBA to be ugly, and many expect baseball to go into another lockout on December 1, 2026. That can't happen for a sport that makes as much money as baseball, but money is ultimately the biggest reason why many feel baseball will end up in a lockout. When you look across the professional sports landscape, Major League Baseball is the only sport that doesn't have a salary cap, and that is going to be the major topic of conversation during the next CBA negotiations. Every season, the contracts continue to increase, and you have seen them reach all-time highs with Shohei Otani and Juan Soto. Sure, there is still what is known as a luxury tax penalty, but it's a penalty that most teams have no issues paying to remain competitive. According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, team owners are getting fed up with these high-dollar free-agent contracts, especially when teams defer those deals. That alone is a big enough reason for them to push for a salary cap, which will be their main goal when the new CBA negotiations begin. Baseball has been very fortunate to get away with several lockouts in the past, as they seldom lose games as part of the lockout. However, this could be the one case where regular-season games are lost, as the owners may be pushing so hard for some salary cap to be implemented that the negotiations could get ugly. Although the last lockout didn't last all that long, and no regular season games were missed, many forget how close things got to having the regular season significantly delayed, as those were some ugly negotiations. Don't expect things to get any better this time, and if I had to guess, they will be even worse this time around, which doesn't bode well for the league. As successful as baseball has been without a cap, it's time for a change. The recent free agent contracts make it impossible for small market teams to get star players and make the overall money being dished out ridiculous. That is the main reason the owners are preparing a Salary Cap proposal for the next CBA, which will have lingering effects on all involved. You can blame the Los Angeles Dodgers as the main reason these talks are heating up. They will enter this season with a 335 million dollar payroll but will also have more than 2 billion dollars sitting in deferred money. The deferred cash makes your draw drop. They sign contracts as if they have Monopoly money, which isn't how the real world works. Another major factor is falling into place as to why these talks are heating up. Look no further than what could happen by the end of next season. It's predicted that by the end of 2025, about two-thirds of the league will likely have taken a pay cut in rights fees at some point in the last three seasons. In response, Manfred wants to radically change how teams share their revenues, pooling all the local TV money together while reducing or eliminating what teams share from other streams. Revenue sharing across the league is the primary factor why baseball doesn't have a cap, but with large market teams not wanting to share more revenue than they already do, a cap could benefit them in the long run. As is the case with every CBA, players are also going to be involved in this, and that alone is the biggest reason why an extended lockout could take place. MLB players have always considered a salary cap an issue in this game, as they feel it would limit the amount of money they can make. That is true from their side of things, as you wouldn't see any more of these 300-plus million-dollar deals. However, the 600 and 700-million-dollar contracts are completely insane, and there is no feasible way the free agency can continue to operate with that type of money being dished out. The last time the players and owners fought over a salary cap in length was during the 1994 season when there was a 232-day lockout. In the process, the 1994 World Series was canceled, which led to the dead era of baseball in the years after. Baseball can't allow that to happen, so you can bet they are going to do whatever it takes to make both sides happy. While the salary cap will make many players unhappy, another suggestion being discussed could win more support. A salary floor should also be addressed, as this option makes more sense than adding a salary cap. While adding a cap limits what a team can spend on someone, adding a floor will ensure that every team has to spend a certain amount of money each season. That would lead to more competitive baseball across the board as small-market teams would be forced to spend additional money to field better teams. That dollar amount is the next question, but some feel the salary floor could be between 130 and 150 million dollars. Considering that 10 teams had a payroll less than that in 2024, it would be a massive increase for all those teams, and it would be interesting to see what could come from it. Regardless of what happens until December 1, 2026, a lot of work must be done from both sides. It seems very unlikely that much progress will be made in the next two seasons, so enjoy baseball while you can. Things could get ugly in a hurry once we inch closer to 2027.
