Shinnosuke Ogasawara wants to be posted to MLB |
While most of us are settling in to enjoy the NFL season and the rest of the MLB Playoffs, this is also the time when all of the free agent rumors start to pick up, with hopes of your favorite team making a push for them. When it comes to the Cubs, there are going to be plenty of rumors to go around, and more often than not, those rumors don't come true, which is a punch to the gut for the fans.
Although this rumor doesn't specifically link the Cubs to him, it could have the Cubs making a push for him as Japanese left Shinnosuke Ogasawara is asking to be posted for MLB teams to pursue. I know what most of you are thinking. Why go for another Japanese arm when there are several other options out there? When you look at the Cubs' success with Japanese-born pitchers, Shota Imanaga especially, and the overall cost-effectiveness of most of the NPB arms, it may not be a bad thing to dive deeper into him to see if he fits this team. If this holds true, Ogasawara could be the third Japanese pitcher to be posted this offseason, joining Tomoyuki Sugano and potentially Roki Sasaki, who could be the most highly anticipated NPB arm ever. Unlike Sugano, who is in his mid-30s, Ogasawara is a 27-year-old lefty who is not only entering his prime but would fit the Cubs financial needs in both the long and short-term picture. Another one of the consistently good Japanese arms, Ogasawara is one of those classic pitchers where you can't look at his record to determine his success. If you did, there is no way any team would be looking at him, as he has posted a 46-65 record in the NPB with a 3.62 ERA. As mentioned, that record isn't very good and doesn't scream successful pitcher, but his ERA shows that he could be much better than his record indicates, making him an intriguing option for the right price. Following an impressive 2022 showing, where he went 10-8 with a 2.72 ERA, Ogasawara has taken a step back the past two seasons, going 12-23. However, a 3.43 combined ERA in those seasons shows that he wasn't always given a ton of run support. His 63 walks and 224 punchouts over that time show how good his command can be. The Cubs have always focused on command-based pitchers more so than flame throwers. As is the case with Imanaga, a location-based starter who relies on his fastball, Ogasawara isn't an overpowering guy and tends to live in the 90-91 MPH range with his heater. However, his off-speed offerings set him apart from some of the other free-agent options. His over-the-top lollipop curveball sits in the 76 MPH range and is a real weapon when used correctly in the count. Given what his record has shown the past few seasons, it is tough to predict the type of success this guy will have at the MLB level if posted. However, his ERA and command indicate that he is a quality pitcher who was often victimized by a lack of run support. Justin Steele comes to mind when you talk about lack of run support, as he didn't have the best run support this season. As was the concern with Imanaga this season, which we saw several times, the long ball could be an issue, especially when you don't have overpowering stuff. Imanaga was able to minimize the damage on his homers, as most of his homers allowed were solo shots. Given that many Japanese parks are either bigger than the MLB parks down the lines or knowing the ball doesn't carry as well, fly-ball pitchers can get away with more in the NPB than they can in the MLB. That is something to watch when it comes to Ogasawara, as the long ball will dictate the type of success he can have in the MLB. Considering the Cubs invested in Imanaga last season and showed interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Kodei Senga, signing Japanese-born players isn't an issue for this team. Throw in that Ogasawara is only 27 years old; he has youth on his side, and that alone is something to consider should the Cubs have even the slightest interest in him.
