Will the Cubs give up their top prospects for pitching? |
By now, everyone knows the Cubs' ideal plan for free agency and how much they are targeting starting pitching. Yet, with the cost of starters continuing to go up and the Cubs simply refusing to go past that first Luxury Tax threshold, getting help from a starting pitching front is much easier said than done.
Sure, this team has been linked and, from all accounts, appears to be the favorite for Max Fried, but given the way Jed Hoyer and Tom Ricketts have been operating, until we see them dish out a five—to six-year deal on a starter, we can't believe any of that. Knowing that it's more likely that the Cubs target a guy like Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, or some other mid-tier starter, as they would fall more into the Cubs' spending habits. While either of those guys would be a nice upgrade, does it move the needle for this team to put them over the top? A playoff team, maybe, but that would be about it, as they could still use another big-time starter to build around. That is where the trade market could come into play, particularly with the Seattle Mariners, as it appears the two sides are actively discussing the starting pitching front. That shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone, as these teams were discussing pitching last year. And how can you not when you look at that Mariners rotation? Not only do they have one of the best rotations in the game, but it's a rotation filled with pitchers under the age of 27 with years of control left, and that alone fits into how this Cubs regime likes to operate. Any trade being discussed with the Mariners should start with their ace in 27-year-old Logan Gilbert. The oldest of the Mariners core group of staters, Gilbert also has the best stuff which is why he is the Ace of their staff. Armed with a 95-97 MPH and a lethal curveball, Gilbert posted a 3.23 ERA over 33 starts last season, with a 27.4% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate, and .194 AVG against. He's controlled through 2027 and would make for an excellent trio with Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga, as he would be the righty you could use to split up the left-handers. Gilbert would most likely require the biggest haul, which may be too steep for the Cubs to pursue. If that is the case, George Kirby and Bryce Miller would be next on the Cubs' list regarding Mariners starters. Both are 26 years old, both have front-of-the-rotation stuff, and both have yet to really hit their stride as pitchers.
Like Gilbert, Kirby has a big fastball, around 96 MPH, and incredible command. Last season, Kirby posted a 3.56 ERA over 33 starts with a 3.0% walk rate and 23% strikeout rate. He is also controlled through 2028, meaning the Cubs would essentially have him locked up for four seasons at a very good price.
Miller may not have the same stuff as the two names above, but with 95 MPH and an ever-improving breaking ball, the sky remains the limit for this young right-hander. You could make the case that Miller was their best starter in 2024, posting a 2.94 ERA over 31 starts last season, with a 6.4% walk rate, a 24.3% strikeout rate, and a .200 average against. He's also cost-controlled through the 2029 season, putting him at 31 or 32 years old when the deal ended.
The biggest wild card in the entire Mariners rotation is Bryan Woo, and if I'm the Cubs, that is who I would target out of this group. Not only is Woo controlled through 2029, but he is also only 24 years old, meaning he will not be 30 when his current deal expires. That would allow the Cubs to re-sign him again based on his success, as he could be part of this rotation for the next decade.
Another hard thrower who sits around 95 with his fastball, Woo battled through some injuries last season and was limited to just 22 starts. That is a concern, but the results are not a concern. He posted a team-best 2.89 ERA in those 22 starts with a 2.8% walk rate, 21.4% strikeout rate, and .211 AVG against. These are all elite numbers across the board, as he has arguably the brightest future of them all.
Losing any of these starters would be a massive blow for the Mariners, but with Luis Castillo and several others still in their rotation, they could overcome one arm leaving. What Seattle needs more than anything is offense, and the Cubs have plenty of it, especially on the prospect front.
Not only are the Mariners' top four pitchers being discussed with the Cubs, but some of the Cubs' best prospects are being discussed as part of this team, with James Triantos, Owen Caissie, and Matt Shaw the three names popping up the most.
If I had to guess, Triantos seems like the most likely option to be traded, especially given his breakout season last year. The 21-year-old former second-round pick emerged as one of the organization's best hitters this season as he finished the year close to .300 across AA and AAA and went on to swipe better than 40 bases. A 2B by trade, Triantos is part of this organization's positional crunch issue; with him being a top 50 prospect in baseball, someone will make a play for him.
Caissie and Shaw would be the hardest to lose, but out of the two, Caissie seems to be the one expected to go first. Knowing that the Cubs have a log jam in the OF right now, Caissie is blocked for another season, which means, barring any injuries, he will be heading back to AAA. That may not be a bad thing for his development, but what good does that do him from a competitive standpoint?
Caissie has been one of the organization's most consistent hitters over the past two years. He has combined to hit .283 across those two seasons, averaging 21 homers and 84 RBIs. He has a very high strikeout rate but makes tons of loud contact from the left side, which is hard to ignore. The Cubs would love to have his bat on the Northside someday, but you must give up something to get something.
The least likely name on this list to get traded is 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw, who could be the opening day 2B next season. A lot of that hinges on what the Cubs do with Nico Hoerner and Isaac Paredes, as both of them have had their names pop up as trade candidates this season. Should either one of them go, Shaw would instantly slide into their spot, thus taking him off the board for any trade talks.
Until that day happens, you can see why the Mariners want Shaw, as he appears to be the real deal. In just over one season, Shaw has gone through the entire Cubs minor League system and, for the most part, has crushed the ball at each stop. Shaw, slashed .298/.395/.534 (142 wRC+) at Iowa this year. He is the Cubs’ top prospect and a top-25 type in MLB. He was a 20-20 player this season who has 30-30 potential. If he is the one you're going to package, it better work out in your favor.
