2024 Cubs Season Projections: Bullpen |
At long last, we have come to the final part of our season projections series, and it comes right as Spring games are getting underway. As expected, this will round out the Cubs pitching staff, as the bullpen will be the focus today.
Unlike the previous installments that highlighted each player individually in terms of their predictions, with so many possible names and options for the pen, this will be broken down into categories, with the overall predictions coming more as a collective grouping. When it comes to bullpens, most teams have three or four levels to deal with. You have the long relief options, the middle relief options, the set-up men, and the closer. Set-up options and closers often fall into the high-leverage category as many teams have gone from the standard bullpen to a more complex hybrid model. That is the model that the Cubs are taking on this season as Craig Counsell looks to work his magic with a bullpen full of options and intrigue. With the 26-man roster now implemented for the third season, most teams elect to carry 13 pitchers and 13 players at least for the first part of the season. Some teams start the season with 14 pitchers, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Cubs be one of those teams. However, with most likely seven spots accounted for as we enter spring, look for this team to carry eight relievers when the season opens, with the final spot coming down to competition. Long Relief/Swing Man: When you look at the Cubs' pen, not only do they have a handful of long relief options but several arms that could be long relievers or swingmen. You could also see these arms as middle relief options, showing how versatile this pen could be. Whenever you have Drew Smyly, Hayden Wesneski, and Javier Assad set to open the season in the pen, it shows you how much depth your organization has in the rotation, as all three have starter experience.
With these arms in the bullpen, it will allow Counsell to play around a bit more, as they can give him multiple innings or even extended innings if needed while also falling into the match-up category. More importantly, it provides the Cubs three additional starters should injuries happen, as you need more starters.
Prediction: 114 games, 21 starts, 10-6, and a 3.56 ERA
The numbers listed in that prediction are a combined tally of how many opportunities they will get together. While you would like to see them pitch in more games, using these guys less than 40 times is good, as that will show how durable your rotation is.
However, with Jordan Wicks most likely on an innings limit, Shota Imanaga possibly getting extra between some starts, and the fact that injuries do happen, all three will get time on the mound as a starter. Should they produce at the level they have in the past, you could have mixed results, so keep an eye on that this season.
Middle Relief/Late-inning arms: The biggest strength of the Cubs bullpen last season was their back end, which emerged as one of the best trios in baseball. Led by Mark Leiter Jr, Julian Merryweather, and Adbert Alzolay, the trio was lights out for nearly five months last season as they ensured the Cubs would win most games they led late.
All three options are back in the mix this season and are expected to build off last season. Throw in free agent righty Hector Neris, and the Cubs back end is even deeper. The biggest question now is the closer position, as Alzolay hasn't been announced as the closer. Although he does appear to be the favorite, don't count out Neris as the wild card in the entire situation.
Prediction: 223 games, 45 saves, and a collective 3.12 ERA
Anytime you get over 220 combined games from the back of your pen, you have to consider it a good thing, as that means the Cubs are in most games. Throw in 45 saves, which will come from Neris and Alzolay, and this once again has a chance to be one of the best bullpens in the game. Unlike last year, when they burned out down the stretch before getting hurt, Counsell has more options to play with to keep guys fresh.
Final Spot: The seven names mentioned above are nearly locks for the 2024 season, but that could all change with an injury or a rough spring. However, the Cubs still have one position to address, and that is more of a middle relief option that Counsell will use as needed. As expected, Jose Cuas, Daniel Palencia, Ben Brown, Caleb Kilian and Carl Edwards Jr will be in the mix for that role, but with all of them having minor league options, expect them to open the season in AAA.
However, two names appear to be the favorites for the final bullpen spot, and one comes as a surprise with Keegan Thompson and Luke Little. Thompson is the biggest question mark of them all, as he went from being one of the best relievers in baseball during the 2022 season to completely falling off in 2023. When he is on, Thompson can fill a role similar to Smyly, Wesneski, and Assad while also having the ability to pitch in high-leverage situations.
Little is the one that will gain the most attention this Spring, mainly because of his showing last year. The big 6-9 lefty reached the majors in September and threw nine scoreless frames in his nine outings last season. Armed with a lethal fastball-slider combo that mystifies lefties, Little has all the tools to be a future closer, and if things go as planned, he could be the closer by the end of the season or, at the very worst, heading into 2025.
