2025 Chicago Cubs Season Projections: Starting Pitching

Kamil Krzaczynski - USA Today Sports

Dustin Riese - Senior Writer - Monday, February 17 2025

There is no question that the Chicago Cubs' strength last season was their starting pitching. Even with Jordan Wicks going down with practically a season-ending injury and Kyle Hendricks suffering the worst season of his career, the starting pitching kept the Cubs afloat in most of their games and helped them stay in the race until September.

Even with the improvements this team has made offensively this offseason, it will once again come down to this team's starting pitching, as that will be the key to their success. Sure, they may not have the overpowering arms that some of these other rotations have, but the bottom line is they know how to pitch.

That is all it takes sometimes, as it's better to know how to get guys out at the plate instead of trying to overpower guys. Looking at the starting rotation for the next two days, there are four names that appear set in stone for the top four spots, while the No. 5 spot could be up for grabs this Spring.

Most feel that the No. 5 spot is Javier Assad's to lose. Still, with the addition of Colin Rea, a healthy Wicks, and several other Minor League options, such as Brandon Birdsell, Connor Noland, and Cade Horton, there could be some competition for who gets the final spot.

Part one of our starting pitching predictions falls on the top half of the rotation.

Justin Steele

Although not your typical Ace, Justin Steele is the de-facto Ace of the Chicago Cubs or, at the very worst, their 1-A pitcher when you look at how their team is built. He is the biggest success story when you talk about homegrown talent, as Steele has been a part of the organization since 2014, battling through several minor-league injuries before making it to the show.

Once he had his opportunity in 2021, Steele began his MLB career as a reliever before moving to the rotation for the second half of 2021. After showing plenty of potential, he earned a spot in the rotation in 2022 before having a break in 2023 that saw him go 16-5 with a 3.05 ERA and finish in the top three in CY Young voting.

Steele took a step back last season by going 5-5 with a 3.07 ERA, but he did miss nearly two months with a series of early-season injuries. Once he came back, it took him a while to settle back in, but by the end of the season, he was looking like the Steele of old. The Cubs will need him to be at his best again this season, as he is tasked with anchoring this rotation again.

Prediction: 33 starts, 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 184 innings, 43 walks, and 174 strikeouts.

There is no question that Steele has been durable most of his career, and the Cubs will need him to be durable again. Given some of the pitchers Steele will face this season, his results may not be as good as the past two seasons, but that shouldn't stop him from putting together another great season as he continues to earn a spot in this team's long-term plans.

Shota Imanaga

When the Cubs landed Shota Imanaga as a free agent last season, there were a lot of concerns about how he would pitch in the Majors. Not only is he not a hard thrower, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range, but he lives up in the zone, which makes him prone to give up the home run ball.

You saw that plenty of times last season when he gave up 27 homers in 29 starts, but outside of that, he was about as good as the Cubs could've imagined. Not only did he walk fewer batters (28) than starts (29), but take away three rough starts that saw him give up nearly 33% of his earned runs, and he was close to being the best pitcher in the National League.

Still, his rookie season was more than a success as he went 15-3 to lead the team in wins, led the team in innings pitched, strikeouts, and ERA as he finished the season with a 2.91. He pitched well enough to be the Ace this season, but he will once again settle in as the Cubs 1-B or even the No. 3 should they split up the lefties.

Prediction: 30 starts, 13-7, 3.41 ERA, 30 walks, 166 strikeouts in 172 innings:

Duplicating what Imanga did in his rookie season won't come easy as the league has had an entire season to adjust to his pitching. The same can be said for Imanaga, as he has an entire offseason to figure out what he needs to do to improve. Even if the numbers aren't as good as last season, he will still put together another solid campaign to help anchor this staff.

Jameson Taillon

One of the biggest reasons the Cubs staff was as strong as they were a season ago was the massive improvement Jameson Taillon made. After posting a horrendous 8-10 record with a 4.84 ERA in 2023, the first of what is a four-year deal, all eyes were on Taillon in 2024 as he was not only being discussed as a trade target, but some wondered about the kind of production he could give them.

What the fans saw was a pitcher who looked like a 17 million-dollar man as he bounced back from an early-season back injury to go 12-8 with an impressive 3.27 ERA. That was the second-lowest ERA of his career, only behind his 3.20 ERA in 2018, and he did that while producing one of the lowest strikeout rates of his career as he has transformed himself into more of a contact-first pitcher.

Better suited as the No. 3 on this team, Taillon could see himself landing in the No.2 spot, allowing the Cubs to split up their lefties Steele and Imanaga at the top of the rotation. Regardless, the Cubs top three arms will have to be at their best as they will face many challenging starting rotations this season.

Prediction: 32 starts, 11-9, 3.68 ERA, 170 innings, 41 walks, 157 strikeouts.

The 2025 season is not only a massive one for Taillon, but is filled with question marks. The biggest question falls on last season, as many wonder if that is the pitcher he is or if it was a one-year fluke.

Despite being close to a .500 pitcher most of his career, Taillon has shown the ability to put together strong seasons, which he has done on several occasions. He could be another one of those guys who has a down season compared to last season, but is still pitching well enough to win double-digit games again.