2024 Cubs Season Projections: First Base |
One of the biggest holes on this Cubs roster for the better part of four seasons has been the lack of production at first base. Ever since Anthony Rizzo was traded to the Yankees, the Cubs have had a revolving door at 1B, and this year could be more of the same.
They have tried different combinations in the past, such as Frank Schwindel and Alfonso Rivas in 2022, before trying Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini last year. The Schwindel and Rivas pairing worked a bit, especially with Schwindel having an impressive two-month run to start his career, but the Hosmer and Mancini project was a total disaster. You also had a situation where the Cubs tried Matt Mervis and Jared Young at first, but neither one of them could do much, thus handing the duties over to Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario down the stretch. With full team workouts set to begin on Monday, there is the question as to who will play first base again this year, but unlike in the past, it does appear the Cubs have a plan. Sure, they are banking on prospect Michael Busch to pan out, but given who the Cubs have had their the past few seasons, it's better to find out now if he can handle every duty at first so the Cubs have an idea of what to do beyond this season. Expect him to split time with a few others, as this will once again be a position to watch. Michael Busch: When the Cubs elected to trade Jackson Ferris to the Dodgers in exchange for Yancy Almonte and Busch, it was a surprise, but you could see why the Cubs made the deal. A top-50 prospect in all of the MLB, Busch was the Dodgers No.2 prospect and was tearing it up at the AAA level. His biggest issue was being blocked by Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy at first and third, as the only real chance he had was to hope for an injury. Now that he has been traded, Busch is getting his opportunity to prove he is capable of being an everyday player, and the Cubs are hoping he can solve what has been an issue at first. Prediction: 117 games, .250 average, 21 homers, and 70 RBIs Don't get me wrong, Busch has a ton of potential, but until we see that potential, you can only hope what he can do. Busch will get plenty of time at first base, but he will also get time at DH to keep his bat in the lineup. Like most rookies or young players, Busch will go through his season struggles, but Craig Counsell will let him battle those struggles and make the adjustments needed. That alone will be crucial as he could put himself in the running for rookie of the year if all pans out.
Patrick Wisdom: Although he may not be listed as a 1B on the roster, expect most of Wisdom's time to be at 1B or as a DH. Say what you want about his bat and the swing-and-miss that comes with it, but the bottom line is the dude has power. The Cubs don't have much of that right now, so at least having his bat available will be huge.
His biggest issue has been against right-handers, as he hits below the mendoza line against righties. Compare that to lefties, where he is closer to .250, and Wisdom is more of a matchup type of player that the Cubs will use to their advantage while also getting him as many at-bats as possible early.
Prediction: 91 games, .235 average, 20 homers 47 RBIs
Although a .235 average isn't great, considering how poorly he has hit the past two seasons, that would be an improvement. Regardless, you know what you will get from Wisdom as he's a guy who will crush the ball when he makes contact, but will also whiff a ton.
This could be his last season in Chicago, especially if he can't improve his swing-and-miss rate. However, with Counsell at the helm, there should be some slight improvements as he can get the most out of his players no matter the situation.
Matt Mervis: The biggest wild card the entire spring is Matt Mervis and the plan for the future. Mervis got his first taste at MLB ball last season, but after hitting .185 with three home runs in 30 games, he was sent back to AAA after 90 plate appearances and never returned. Once he returned to Iowa, Mervis started slowly before going on a three-month tear to end the season.
That shouldn't shock anyone when you look at how his 2022 season ended, as Mervis has put together a combined .287 average the past two seasons with Iowa to go with 58 homers and 244 RBIs. Talk about the ideal production you would love to see from a first baseman.
Unless Mervis can have a breakout spring, look for him to start the year in AAA yet again and potentially be used as trade bait. However, unlike how David Ross handled young players, Counsell has always relied on his prospects for the success of his teams, so look for him to give Mervis more of an opportunity.
Prediction: 68 games, .264 average, 10 homers, and 34 RBIs
There is a scenario where all three of these guys could be on the team at one point, but you also have to consider some injuries and possible trades this season. Mervis will play a role on this year's team, even if it is just for a short time. That is all you can ask for as a young player, and if given a fair opportunity, look for him to produce when called upon.
