2025 Chicago Cubs Season Projections: Starting Pitchers Part 2 |
Dustin Riese
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- 2 days ago
As we venture down the rest of the Chicago Cubs pitching staff, it's all about the back end of the rotation today, as this is part two of the starting pitching projections. As mentioned in part one, their rotation performance was a big reason why the Cubs stayed in the race as long as they did.
This team's starting pitching was its strength from the top down. As they approach the 90-win threshold this season, the rotation will again shoulder much of the load. That includes the bottom half of the rotation, which, although not as dominant as the front half, still has enough depth to put together some quality innings. Unfortunately, it will take more than quality innings to get the job done. The Cubs will need consistency and a breakout performance from their back end if they want to compete for a division title. This is one of the many battles to watch in Spring, as several candidates are vying for the final rotation spot to begin the season.
Of the names mentioned in the back half of the rotation, Matthew Boyd is the only guarantee as long as he remains healthy. Signed to a two-year, 15 million dollar deal, Boyd is coming in to replace Kyle Hendricks, who is coming off the worst season of his professional career. Any boost from Boyd would be considered a massive upgrade, as his presence alone is an upgrade for this rotation. As is the case for many pitchers, health is an issue for Boyd, as he made just eight starts a season ago, logging 39 innings in those starts. While the overall results were good, going 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA, there are some concerns about his long-term health and 4.85 career ERA. Prediction: 23 starts, 117 innings, 7-8, 4.26 ERA. There will be a ton of pressure on Boyd this season as he will have to fill some massive shoes. Even if Hendricks wasn't the Hendricks of old in the past few seasons, he was still one of the most beloved Cubs over the past decade and played an essential role in the history of Cubs. Given his contract, Boyd is entering that situation knowing he must produce. Look for him to have some success early on, but teams will start to adjust as the season goes on, and another potential injury could loom at some point.Matthew Boyd
Javier Assad
While many see Assad as the favorite to land the No. 5 job, you can't just hand him that opportunity. Assad has been an enigma the past two seasons as he allows the most traffic for anyone in this rotation, but he also has a way of getting out of trouble to minimize the damage. You saw that throughout the first four months of the season, but it was the final two months when Assad was exposed, as his numbers didn't end the way he would've liked.
Still, with a 7-6 mark across 29 starts and a 3.73 ERA, he has proven that he can handle starting duties, but given his inability to go deep into games, he is still a liability late in the season. Assad is also one of those versatile guys who can pitch out of a long relief role, as he could be one of the more critical pitching pieces for the team this season.
Prediction: 32 games (20 starts), 5-5, 3.86 ERA in 108 innings.
As mentioned, Assad will have moments when he pitches like a reliable starter and moments when things don't go well. If this organization were able to let that happen, he would be fine, but the Cubs are hopeful for the playoffs this season.
Knowing that, look for Craig Counsell to have a much quicker hook on Assad this season should he struggle to go deep into games. Regardless, he will have a role on this team, even if it does mean he comes out of the pen later in the season.
Jordan Wicks
One of the more significant questions heading into camp is the type of role Jordan Wicks will have this season. Coming off a year where he spent most of the season on the IL, Wicks is expected to begin the season in Iowa, but that could all change with a strong start to the year. Remember, he was once the Cub's top pitching prospect and began the 2023 minor league season 9-0, so pitching out of relief isn't something he is entirely comfortable with.
Wicks may pitch well enough to break camp with the team, but he likely winds up at AAA to begin the year. His time there will be short-lived as he could be the biggest X-Factor for the Cubs rotation this season.
Prediction: 21 games, 115 innings, 8-4, 3.56 ERA.
There was a reason why Wicks was a former first-round pick. After putting together eye-popping numbers with Kansas State, Wicks was starting to show the Cubs he was worth a first-round selection until injuries derailed his progress in 2024. He is healthy in 2025 and appears to be in the best shape of his life, as he is our pick to be the Cubs breakout candidate this season.
While these are the three names expected to compete for the final rotation spots, you can't rule out Colin Rea and Ben Brown as potential fits at some point this season. Cade Horton, Caleb Kilian, Brandon Birdsell, and Connor Noland are also names to watch as the season goes on. The Cubs hope their influx of depth will pay off.
Starting Pitcher Projections Part 1
