Cubs Free Agent Target: Justin Verlander |
The Chicago Cubs certainly find themselves in a tough spot, dont they? This team knows they have to get better, but they also know they have a specific spending limit that they must follow, as that is just how this team operates. Whether you agree with that philosophy is a different argument, but the Cubs have backed themselves into a corner and must find a creative way to improve.
We already know that the Cubs are expected to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason, but that could turn into two, depending on how things go. Ideally, you would love for this team to go after Crobin Burnes or Max Fried, but after going past the Luxury Tax this season and having to forfeit their second and fifth-round picks this season plus one million dollars in International Pool Money if they go over again, don't expect them to go after one of the big fish this offseason. Even at that, the Cubs still have plenty of options, as Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Flaherty, and Yusei Kikuchi could all be fallback options. If that doesn't excite them, you still have the trade market, which the Cubs have already dove into, and that should continue throughout the offseason. Putting all this into perspective, they must get creative if the Cubs want to add two starters. They want at least one of those pitchers to have multiple years of control, which is where the trade market comes into play. You could also see a situation where they go after a veteran on a short-term reasonable deal to anchor the back of the rotation for at least one season. Although not the most popular name on this list, Justin Verlander falls into the short-term category and is someone the Cubs have been interested in multiple times. Verlander is on the wrong side of 40, has worn down the past few seasons, and is coming off a horrible 2024. There is still something about Verlander that makes him intriguing. He will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when all is said and done. Verlander is a former MVP, a multiple-time CY Young, and had one of the best seasons of his career in 2023. That was followed up by one of his worst seasons in 2024, as he posted a 5.48 ERA across 17 starts and 90 innings. Those are horrible numbers; some wonder if Father Time has caught up to him at the worst time. On the surface, the 2024 season was a disaster for Verlander, and not much went right. Despite the struggles, some things went right, as his 6.8% walk rate was still strong. More importantly, he managed contact very well: His 6.9% barrel rate and 32.5% hard-hit rate were better than the league average. Combine that with a .303 BABIP (.278 for his career), and it’s easy to see why his expected ERA at Statcast (3.88 xERA) was much stronger. Knowing that a lot of the underlying numbers were better than the final results, some wonder if a typical and healthy offseason could be what Verlander needs to put one more strong season together. No one is asking him to get back to his Cy Young self, but he should get anywhere close to his 2023 showing, where he posted a 3.22 ERA across 27 starts, and the Cubs would gladly take him. Given how his health has been an issue the past few seasons, his durability will be a massive question mark, as it is doubtful that he will ever start more than 25 games again. You can live with that from a No. 5 starter, as you can skip his start occasionally if needed. As is the case with every player the Cubs are going to look at, money is the final hurdle to get over, and if this was the Verlander of old, there is no way the Cubs go after him. However, with a projected contract of one year and 12 million dollars, why not go after, as he can still touch 95 MPH with his fastball while mixing in that sharp slider? At worst, you get this year's version of Kyle Hendricks, and it would allow them to release him with no long-term commitment. On the flip side, you could see a bounce-back season, which instantly makes him one of the better No. 5s in the game.
