Jed Hoyer needs to be aggressive for the big-market Cubs |
Unlike the NBA and NFL, MLB free agency is typically very slow-moving and, for lack of a better term, dull. This year, with an unprecedented name like Shohei Ohtani on the market and many other big-name players being available, many anticipated this year’s free agency would be peak entertainment.
However, because of Shohei Ohtani’s desire to protect his privacy and the rest of the market stalling until such a prominent name — and financial commitment — is made known, last week’s winter meetings and free agency up to this point have been very lackluster. The big move thus far has been the Yankees taking advantage of a trade market waiting for the Ohtani domino to fall by acquiring generational talent Juan Soto in exchange for a hefty heap of prospects. As it stands, some of the biggest free agent names are still free agents: Yashinobu Yamamoto and Cody Bellinger. The Cubs’ interest in them makes sense from a baseball standpoint and has been well-reported thus far—that, and of course, Ohtani’s record deal. However, and take this with a grain of salt, reports had initially been named the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays as favorites for Ohtani. According to reports, a once anticipated 500 million dollar contract may be closer to $600 million. Well, think again. Ohtani inked a massive 10-year, $700 million contract as the cornerstone of the Dodgers’ hopeful dynasty. But the Dodgers’ extremely high bid does not take them out of the market for remaining free agents or trade targets. Ohtani’s contract includes making 2 million dollars per year for the first ten years and then $68 million annually from 2033-2042. Yamamoto has had meetings with the New York Mets and Yankees — and appears to be of top priority to them and the Boston Red Sox — as well as the Dodgers lurking even after signing Ohtani. Despite never throwing a pitch in the major leagues, reporters think the 25-year-old phenom’s price may not only eclipse the expected 200 million dollar payday but also be north of $300 million. As for Bellinger, who played for Chicago in 2023, agent Scott Boras has driven interest from the Cubs, Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, and more thus far — and, in turn, may have driven the price tag for the former MVP in the 250-300 million dollar range, as is usually the case with Boras clients. Is Jed Hoyer too smart to spend THAT kind of money on these players? Jed Hoyer has earned the fanbase and the organization’s trust. He has been frugal since he took the helm of the Cubs and has made some very lucrative moves that all appear to have favored the Cubs long-term. Hindsight is 20/20, but it appears trades of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Yu Darvish, Craig Kimbrel, and Javier Baez, among others, have put the Cubs in a healthier position as an organization moving forward. Another example is last year. The Cubs wanted to get one of the four elite free-agent shortstops and saw Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts sign massive deals early in free agency. But the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, 177 million-dollar deal. Not only did the Cubs pay the least, but they got the best player in 2023. According to Fangraphs, Swanson led that class of free agent shortstops in WAR and was the only one to be named an All-Star and win Gold Glove. So, Hoyer has been clever. But with the volatile market changing by the year and free agents’ contracts becoming larger and larger — so many moves these days look like “overpays”. And part of me thinks Hoyer would rather not sign a guy than be labeled as the GM who “overpaid” for one. The Cubs indicated their aggressive nature by the surprise move to poach and sign Craig Counsell to the largest managerial contract in MLB history. Many expected that aggressiveness to continue throughout the offseason. While many around the fanbase and the media do not blame Hoyer for not being willing to spend more than $700 million for a player who has some glaring question marks and had a desire to go to the Dodgers anyway — and while many will not blame Hoyer for not wanting to spend $300 million on a pitcher who has never seen big league action or an aging outfielder coming off of injury history and a renaissance year — it is those players who are at the top of the market, and they are there for a reason. Baseball’s contracts have seen a noticeable rise over the last few seasons, and Ohtani’s (plus its deferrals) will only lead to that rise increasing. The fact is, the Cubs ARE a big market team. They have the finances and the resources to ACT like a big market team. At some point, Hoyer must stop acting so frugal and turn that into aggressiveness. Whether it be in the trade market or free agency, there are many avenues to improve — but they will all include outbidding some teams with deep pockets. Eventually, if the Cubs want to get better, as their aggressive hiring of Counsell made it appear, they will need to pay for it.
