The Cubs need to keep Cody Bellinger, now and beyond |
In years prior, the Cubs' offense, once labeled as “broken,” featured too many power bats inconsistent in the power department and struck out far too often. When the Cubs decided to move on from players like Kyle Schwarber, Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Willson Contreras — the effort was to reconstruct the offense. Signing and resigning players like Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki make it clear the Cubs' goal is to try and win and win in a certain fashion.
Cody Bellinger was once that player. During his 2019 MVP season, the left-handed hitter clubbed 47 home runs, drove in 115 runs, hit .305, and walked almost as many times as he struck out. That season he ended a three-year peak for Bellinger, including 111 home runs, a batting average near .300 and a Rookie of the Year, two All-Star appearances, and of course, the MVP. The next three years for Bellinger were abysmal, leading the Dodgers to non-tender Bellinger and making him a free agent ahead of his age-28 season. After six seasons with the Dodgers, Bellinger hit the open market, and the Cubs bit on the former all-star. It is well documented that the Cubs are in the midst of a rebuild, but they believed that Bellinger could be an excellent bridge piece as the Cubs try to turn the tide toward contending. The Cubs signed him to a year, 17.5 million dollar deal with a mutual option for the 2024 season — meaning if the Cubs want Bellinger but he thinks he can make more elsewhere OR Bellinger wants the money, but the Cubs don’t think he is worth that in 2024, the pair has to decide mutually. For lack of a better term, the move is a prove-it deal. Bellinger can use the season to prove to the league that he is still a star and can improve his value before he hits free agency again after the 2023 season. For the Cubs, it is a relatively low-risk deal. Chicago gets to benefit from any production this season from Bellinger and has the contract flexibility where they are not tied into a lengthy commitment and could potentially flip Bellinger at the trade deadline if his value is high enough and the Cubs are bad enough. So far, Bellinger has been a slam dunk — and a savior to the Cubs offense. He is enjoying a resurgent campaign, as he has 15 home runs, 56 RBI and is slashing .314/.366/.536 in 74 games this year. His contact is up, his strikeouts are way down, his defense has been stellar in both centerfield and first base, and it has led to an accumulation of 2.9 WAR. Not to mention, Cody Bellinger was the best player in the league in July. Bellinger hit eight home runs, drove in 24 runs, and slashed .406/.439/.698 for an OPS of 1.137. Bellinger’s fit initially seemed like an understandable stopgap. Think about it, the Cubs have corner outfielders Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked up, and top prospects Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcantara, and Owen Cassie are all coming to make an impact in the outfield. At first base, it appeared like Matt Mervis’ spot to lose in the future, and players like Trey Mancini, Patrick Wisdom, and Eric Hosmer would share that spot for the next year or two anyway. However, struggles from the collection of players at first base and the success of Mike Tauchman thus far in center has turned Bellinger into more of a first baseman — which certainly could fill a future opening and finally be the left-handed power bat that the Cubs have been clamoring for for years. Not to mention, Bellinger has positional versatility and is a true five-tool player. He makes sense for this year and years to come. Bellinger has easily played himself into the hearts of Cubs fans. Thoughts have swirled about a Bellinger extension, which quickly turned into ideas of what a Bellinger trade could bring back in terms of a return. However, as Bellinger has been hot in July, so have the Cubs. A 15-10 record in July (so far) has played the Cubs into contention for both the NL Central division and NL Wild Card race — so much so that the Cubs have informed inquiring teams that Bellinger is off the market. A very telling story of how well the Cubs have played this month. The Cubs have forced management to try and win this season — largely thanks to Bellinger. “I know Belli wants to stay,” said Cubs starter Marcus Stroman. “I would love to stay here, but much of that’s out of our control.” The Cubs have proven that it is in their control, and winning ballgames was enough to keep those Cubs players in town beyond the deadline. Now here is where the fanbases' thoughts do not necessarily align. As Stroman is set to opt out after this season and Bellinger will almost indeed elect free agency — why would you not shop these players for a guarantee of getting something in return instead of losing them for nothing in free agency? Here’s my contention. Why not keep both players, who have made numerous positive comments about how much they love playing in Chicago, and allow them to be a part of a playoff run — what better way to fully fall in love with playing in Chicago than playing meaningful games in the fall at Wrigley Field. Whether or not the Cubs trade Stroman or Bellinger, they definitely will be going to free agency anyway. But you must acknowledge that it is much harder to resign a player who did not finish the season with your team — plus, why would you allow these players to fall in love with another team or city? The Aroldis Chapman + Yankees situation is an outlier, and the Cubs’ recent Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo scenarios are much more the norm. Extensions are always something that fans want, but with the type of money that players have been signing contracts for, why wouldn’t a player of the caliber of Stroman or Bellinger not want to test the open market to see what they *could* get? Furthermore, why wouldn’t the Cubs pay these players what they want to be a part of the Cubs as they move toward contention? Of course, extending Bellinger always seemed especially hard because he is a Scott Boras client. While clients like Jose Altuve and Stephen Strasburg have signed extensions, typically, Boras likes to take his clients to free agency and squeeze out as much money as he can on the open market. The fact of the matter is that Bellinger’s Cubs career is not coming to an end in a few days. And the Cubs have the resources to ensure that it does not end any time soon.
