Who will win the No. 5 starter for the Cubs? |
Barring a shocking development where the Cubs acquire another starter in some aspect, the current state of the Cubs rotation is the same rotation they will be trotting out on Opening Day. As things sit, Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Matthew Boyd are the locks, and although it may not be the most intimidating group, it's not as bad as most people think.
Not only are all four of these starters veterans, but they are also coming off very strong seasons, especially Taillon and Imanaga. These guys have been around long enough that they know how to pitch, avoid trouble, and, most importantly, can eat innings and get deep into games. That becomes especially crucial as the season goes on, as the more innings your staff can eat up early in the season, the better your bullpen will be at the end. While those four names are set in stone, the Cubs will have one massive question to address heading into the season: who will be the team's No. 5 guy to open the year? As is the case, this team is not short on options, although some options may be better than others. Hayden Wesneski and Cade Horton were seen as two options this winter, but with Wesneski off to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker trade and Horton recovering from a series of injuries, neither one will be in the plans this season. Still, the Cubs have five or even six other candidates battling it out for that final rotation spot, and it's a battle that should last the duration of Spring Training.
Assad has to be the odds-on favorite to earn the job, as he not only was a starter last season but, for the most part, performed very well. Over four months, Assad was one of the best pitchers in baseball ERA-wise, only to fall off during the season's final month. Given his struggles to keep guys off base and his inability to get through five innings consistently, a regression is coming, and if that is the case, he may be best suited for a multi-inning bullpen role.Javier Assad
Colin Rea
If that is the case, look for Colin Rea as the favorite to overtake the No. 5 spot after signing as a free agent. Like Assad, Rea isn't a guy who will overpower you as he tends to pitch to contact. That often leads to pitching into and out of trouble, which can rack up his pitch count for shorter outings.
Rea did have some issues with the long ball in 2024, which could play a factor at Wrigley, but he is coming off arguably his best overall season as a starter, which is why the Cubs gave him five million. Given that he has both starter and reliever experience, there is a good chance he bounces between both roles to stabilize one of those two spots.
Nate Pearson
This is where the young guys come into play, as Ben Brown, Caleb Kilian, Nate Pearson, and Jordan Wicks will all be battling it out for the final spot in the rotation come spring. Despite the reports that Pearson will be stretched out as a starter, he is the least likely option to earn the rotation spot.
Pearson hasn't been a starter for a few seasons and had great success as a late-inning arm last year. Taking him out of that role could hurt the Cubs more than help them. The Cubs could be stretching him out to be an opener type of guy who gives you three innings or one time through the order.
Caleb Kilian
You could make that same argument for Kilian, who has to be on his last opportunity with the Cubs. Kilian was once regarded as the Cubs top overall pitching prospect, but a series of injuries paired with his inability to get guys out at the MLB level has put a massive dent on what looked to be a promising career.
Unlike Pearson, Kilian has remained a starter throughout his Minor League career, but after suffering a shoulder injury last spring, he spent more time in the pen in 2024, which could be his best opportunity to succeed in 2025. Brown not only has the potential to be a front-line starter, but he arguably has the best stuff in the Cubs organization.
You saw him put that stuff to good use as both a starter and a reliever last season, and he was starting to come into his own as the All-Star break was approaching. Then came his freak neck injury that forced him out for the remainder of the season, killing a promising rookie campaign.
Brown is no stranger to the injury bug, and knowing that the Cubs may be a bit cautious with their approach as a late-inning reliever could be in the cards for him. Even if that isn't where his future lies, he helps the Cubs with one of their needs this season, and pitching out of the pen could essentially allow Brown to unload the tank and be at his best.
Jordan Wicks
That brings us to our final candidate, and from all accounts, he is one of the more significant question marks on this roster in the left-hander Wicks. The former first-round draft pick out of Kansas State, Wicks wasted no time climbing the Cubs prospect ranks, where he was a top 10 player and one of the best lefty pitching prospects in the game.
In his first two seasons, he went from low-A ball to AAA and then got off to a 9-0 start to begin his 2023 season, earning the call to the bigs in August. Wicks continued his success by starting his MLB career going 4-0 and then earning a spot on the 2024 opening day roster, where he was the No. 5 starter out of camp.
Looking to make a massive impact, Wicks not only got off on the wrong foot but was limited to 10 starts as a series of arm and oblique injuries cut his season short. He is the biggest mystery to this whole rotation piece for various reasons, the biggest reason being that he is a lefty.
With three lefties in Steele, Boyd, and Imanaga already in the rotation, would the Cubs trot out four lefties? You also have to consider that he has options remaining, and considering he has never been a reliever at any point in his career, making him one now may not be the best idea. That could force him to AAA to begin the season, where he would instantly become a top arm in that rotation.
Should Wicks dominate the minors as he did in 2023, it will be a short-lived stay, and he will force his way onto the roster again. Once that happens, Craig Counsell will have to do some roster retooling, but the bottom line is he will have far more starting options this season than last.
